As 2025 draws to a close, this feels like the right time to pause, reflect on what we’ve seen in global private credit, and plan strategically for what lies ahead. 

Private Credit in 2025: Solid Growth, but Mixed Signals 

Recent industry data indicates steady quarter-on-quarter expansion in private credit, even as investor caution rises. 

• Q1–Q2 2025: Global private credit AUM grew an estimated 4–5%, driven largely by refinancing activity and continued lender appetite for mid-market transactions. 

• Q2–Q3 2025: Growth moderated to roughly 2–3%, reflecting tighter underwriting conditions in the US and Europe and increased selectivity around covenant-light structures. 

• Q3–Q4 2025 (projected): Analysts expect a rebound, with 3–4% QoQ expansion, supported by buy-and-build M&A, succession deals, and continued institutional allocation into private markets. 

For additional context, the market is still on a clear long-term upward trajectory: private credit AUM is expected to expand from roughly USD ~1.8–2.0 trillion in 2024 to ~USD 2.9 trillion by 2030 (≈ 11–12% CAGR). 

The signal in the noise: private credit remains one of the fastest-growing alternative asset classes — but the pace is no longer uniform. Growth now comes with increased discipline, more rigorous risk pricing, and wider dispersion in deal structures and outcomes. 

Understand the market forces driving 2026

Regional Market Snapshot: What We Know — and Where to Be Cautious 

Europe & United Kingdom 

While deal-by-deal transparency remains limited compared with the US, private credit momentum continues to build across the region — particularly in mid-market financings, refinancing activity, and sponsor-backed transactions. 

Asset-based, NAV-backed, and structured credit solutions are increasingly viewed as practical alternatives to traditional bank or bond financing, especially as borrowers seek flexibility amidst tighter bank lending. 

Opportunity + Risk: Well-prepared businesses with strong reporting, governance, and stable cash flows stand to benefit from speed and structuring flexibility. However, cross-border fragmentation, regulatory variability, and uneven secondary liquidity mean execution remains jurisdiction-specific rather than uniform. 

Singapore  

Singapore continues to strengthen its position as a strategic private credit hub in Asia, with increasing fund presence, dedicated capital allocation, and a growing pipeline of mid-market and structured financing opportunities. 

Regulated frameworks, a strong legal environment, and proximity to high-growth Southeast Asian markets have made Singapore a preferred base for regional lending platforms, especially those focusing on technology, logistics, infrastructure, and consumption-led industries. 

Signal: The ecosystem is maturing — with more nuanced structuring, increased lender competition for quality deals, and a widening borrower base beyond venture-backed businesses. 

Southeast Asia  

Deal flow across Southeast Asia is expanding, albeit unevenly across jurisdictions. Vietnam and Indonesia are seeing rising sponsor-backed activity, while the Philippines and other frontier markets are attracting early-stage debt capital from regional funds exploring new geographies. 

Global private credit managers continue to set up teams or extend mandates to cover Southeast Asia as part of broader Asia strategies originating from Singapore. 

Watchpoint: Regulatory frameworks, legal enforceability, and reporting standards vary widely — requiring disciplined structuring and local partnership strength. 

United States 

The US remains the world’s largest private credit market — estimated at ~USD 1.8 trillion (2024). Scale continues to drive lender competition, resulting in tighter spreads and heightened underwriting discipline. 

A key dynamic: more funds are moving beyond traditional direct lending toward structured solutions, including asset-based loans, NAV-financing, hybrid debt, and real-estate credit. 

Trend to Watch: The boundary between public and private credit continues to blur — driven by secondaries activity, tradable instruments, and hybrid structures. This creates creative structuring possibilities but also adds valuation complexity and covenant risk. 

Across regions, the pattern is clear: demand for flexible capital remains strong — but success increasingly depends on regional nuance, regulatory awareness, and precision in structuring. 

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2025–2026 Themes: Momentum with Measured Risk 

Private credit continues to evolve, with hybrid and asset-backed structures — including infrastructure-linked lending, NAV-backed facilities and structured finance — gaining traction as borrowers seek flexibility. At the same time, private lenders are increasingly replacing banks and public markets in acquisition financing and leveraged deals, signalling a clear convergence between public and private debt markets. 

Strong institutional appetite is also shaping the landscape, as higher base rates make private credit attractive for insurers, pension funds and sovereign allocators. This capital influx is driving competition — benefiting borrowers on pricing — but also encouraging tighter underwriting discipline. Meanwhile, secondary markets and liquidity solutions (such as continuation vehicles and NAV loans) are expanding, offering more optionality but introducing valuation and transparency considerations. 

Overlaying all of this are macro, regulatory and governance pressures: higher interest costs, evolving ESG requirements, and jurisdiction-specific oversight are raising expectations on reporting quality and operational resilience. 

In short: opportunity remains strong, but success increasingly depends on preparation, structure, visibility — and timing. 

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Key Insights from Our 2025 Events 

This year, we hosted a series of targeted founder and leadership-focused sessions bringing together investors, legal experts, lenders, and operators across the UK, EU, and APAC. Each event was designed to break down complex funding environments into practical guidance founders and CFOs can apply immediately. 

Our VC dealmaking session gave founders a realistic view of today’s fundraising landscape — from shifting term-sheet dynamics to the rise of founder-side legal strategy, cap-table discipline, and the growing importance of alignment over valuation. 

In Singapore, our private credit forum explored how debt is powering scale across Asia’s fast-growing markets. Attendees gained insight into structuring cross-border capital, navigating regulation, and understanding lender expectations in a maturing ecosystem. 

For SMEs exploring regulated growth, our defence-funding event provided a clear roadmap on entering government programmes, engaging with primes, and financing long procurement cycles without unnecessary dilution. 

And finally, our Mid-Year Market Pulse webinar distilled evolving lender sentiment, capital movement, and sector momentum — giving growth-stage businesses a forward-looking view of private credit trends and how to position for stronger terms in 2026. 

Across all events, the message was consistent: 

Preparation and strategy drive leverage — not timing or momentum alone. 

All sessions are available to watch on-demand. 

Watch the 2025 On-Demand Webinar Series  

We also attended World Summit AI 2025, where the conversation around artificial intelligence clearly shifted from experimentation to execution, scale, and real-world impact. Across sectors — from enterprise software and healthcare to defence and infrastructure — discussions focused on how AI creates value, how it scales, and what foundations are required to support it. Key themes included the divergence between AI-native and AI-adopting businesses, the growing role of AI-powered simulation in high-stakes environments, and the increasing importance of infrastructure, governance, and trust as prerequisites for scale. We’ve captured these insights in a dedicated blog exploring what the next phase of AI adoption means for growing businesses — and the capital strategies needed to support it.  

Read our World Summit AI 2025 insights 

Founder & CFO Toolkit: What to Do Before Q1-Q2 2026 Raising 

If you plan to approach private debt or structured credit in 2026: 

• Finalise a 3-scenario financial model (base, growth, downside)
• Ensure clear, investor-grade reporting readiness and governance documentation
• Be ready to articulate use of funds: growth capex / expansion / acquisitions / working capital / project finance etc.
• Evaluate structure options: direct lending vs asset-backed vs hybrid vs NAV-backed — and align to business lifecycle / cash flow profile
• Perform stress-test scenario planning (interest rates, cash flow volatility, macro headwinds) 

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Final Thoughts — A Balanced Look at 2026 

Private credit remains one of the most compelling — and rapidly evolving — financing tools available to growth companies, sponsors, and investors globally. 2025 reinforced its role, but also unveiled areas where discipline, transparency, and careful structuring matter more than ever. 

For companies that prepare early, understand the risks, and approach debt with both strategic clarity and financial discipline, 2026 could offer exceptional growth and flexibility. 

For those who treat it merely as “cheap money,” the evolving headwinds — rising rates, tighter spreads, liquidity risk — could pose unexpected stress. 

As we approach the end of the year, we want to express our gratitude. Thank you for being part of our growing community of ambitious founders, CFOs, investors, and advisors. Your trust, engagement, and curiosity have made 2025 an exciting year — for us, for the companies we support, and for the markets we serve. 

We look forward to partnering with you in 2026 — a year of new opportunities, smarter capital strategies, and bold business growth.